$ES Q4'25 Review
2026 Playbook: Study Q4 Market Character
This is a post no serious trader should skip.
I’d strongly encourage every reader to study Q4 ’25 closely. This review captures key market characteristics that I believe will carry straight into 2026. In many ways, this quarter becomes your playbook: gaps, V-shaped recoveries, balance-before-flush behaviour, and long, drawn-out balance ranges. These aren’t random occurrences. They are recurring traits of how the market moves when structure matters most.
If you’ve been on the fence about joining, there’s a small 2026 gift waiting for you at the end of this post 🎁
Read it slowly. The clues are all here.
Let’s dive in.
Throughout Q4, we stayed anchored to one simple discipline: assessing ES after every ~240 point move. Historically, that’s where one leg completes and the next begins. That framework removed noise, added clarity, and allowed us both in the room and through the newsletter to stay aligned with the market’s true rhythm.
Yes, the swings were mapped.
And yes, the swings delivered.
The most important part? All of this was foresight.
Every level, every zone, every calculated trade idea was laid out in advance for anyone following the work. No curve-fitting. No retroactive explanations. Just preparation meeting opportunity.
That’s the edge.
The Vision: Staircase Support → Quarterly Low 6,550s
Back in September, we identified a staircase support structure taking shape. That observation wasn’t cosmetic it framed our higher timeframe thesis and, more importantly, defined where engagement would matter when pressure finally arrived. This work was first shared inside Discord and then published ahead of time on Substack.
The view was precise and conditional:
“A third leg is likely in development: either 6,480/90s or 6,550–6,580s. Upon confirmation, either zone is likely to initiate a buy-the-dip event for a year-end rally.”
Just structure, mapped in advance.
That’s how we approach every major move.
The Confirmation
As the quarter progressed, the evidence aligned. Monthly Downside Exhaustion came into play, and our focus narrowed decisively to the 6,520–6,550 region. The market’s character matched the thesis: sharp pullbacks in this regime tend to resolve through V-shaped recoveries. These are not moves to fade, they are moves to join, until the recovery completes and any potential trap reveals itself on a look outside and fail.
The Outcome
ES printed its low at 6,529 (ETH) and 6,539 (RTH) after rejecting the Weekly Exhaustion Zone at 6,936–6,954, then proceeded to rally +405 points into December from the lows.
Clean.
Textbook.
Planned.
Round Two: December Repair → 6,725
The second opportunity followed the same playbook.
December called for a structural repair into 6,725, before any sustainable upside could unfold. This was not speculation it was pattern recognition, profile behavior, and poor structure repair playing out in real time. When those elements aligned, the trade shifted firmly into high-probability by design.
Identified.
Planned.
Engaged.
As we stated ahead of time:
“The inability forces the right question: does ES first repair the poor structure below with Gaps at 6,778/92, Single Prints at 6,740-55 and NVPOC at 6,725 before turning higher into what many will label the “Santa Rally”? With unfinished business still sitting at 6,929 and 6,954, a clean-up remains likely and consistent with the view we shared back on 17th November.”
The auction followed that roadmap precisely.
The Response & Execution
ESU
ESZ
On a back-adjusted basis, ES has rallied +233 / +455 points from 6,725 (ESZ) and 6,524/54 (ESZ). Each response occurred at predefined zones, with execution guided by structure, that’s foresight. All personal executions were shared on Discord/Twitter.
The Learning
First and foremost, the importance of zooming out and reading the auction on a higher timeframe is vastly underrated. It pulls you away from the noise and exposes what’s truly developing. A clear example of this was the staircase support identified back in September (refer to the embedded links above). That structure didn’t appear overnight, it developed over time and told a story long before price responded.
Pro Tip on Staircase Supports:
Not all staircase levels carry equal weight. The ones that matter most are those that find confluence; excess highs/lows, major event lows, trend confirmations, or key balance references. That’s what elevates a staircase from “interesting” to actionable. Do yourself a favour and revisit the staircase support levels shared earlier; identify where those confluences existed and what were they. The same logic applies to staircase resistances.
Next, V-shaped recoveries; a recurring market phenomenon and one that is very likely to repeat into 2026. This is where many traders lose their way. Sharp recoveries are often mistaken as opportunities to fade strength, when in reality they are frequently meant to be joined, at least for a move back toward the point of origin and often beyond.
So how do we recognize a true V-shaped recovery?
It starts with two conditions:
Reclaim of the prior swing low
Reclaim of value at the level where the downshift initiated
On their own, these don’t seal the case but they form the foundation. From there, you layer in structure, tempo, and response at key references. When those align, the recovery stops being a surprise and starts becoming a high-probability continuation.
That’s the edge: not predicting the move, but recognizing the character early and positioning accordingly. Learn the Art.
The Bigger Point
These were just three of the most important highlights. The real takeaway isn’t the points captured, it’s the process behind them. Every move was read through character, structure, and preparation. Nothing was forced. It was responsive.
That’s how I approach the market every single session, whether it’s a higher timeframe swing or an intraday execution. Read the auction. Respect the character. Mark your move, and Let the market show its hand.
If you’re ready for the Work.
2026 is just a change on the calendar.
The process doesn’t change.
The read doesn’t change.
The approach, strategy, and frameworks remain exactly the same.
What does change is the level of commitment to doing the simple things well - consistently.
If you’ve been on the fence, I’m opening a limited time entry at $90/month (vs. $108) to mark the transition into the new year. This isn’t a promotion for everyone, it’s an invitation for those ready to approach this like a business.
You can join at edgebyrs.com.
Inside the room, you’ll get real support. I review journals, work through position sizing, help clarify goals, and collaborate with you to build a plan that actually fits you. The objective is straightforward: consistency first, confidence next, results as a by product.
Trading is simple but simple is hard.
Most spent much of 2025 doing the hard bit.
2026 is about doing the simple things well, every single session.
If you’re ready to approach this business with structure, patience, and accountability, I’d be glad to have you in the room.
Clarity First / Action Next.
Wish you all a Happy New Year and a Profitable 2026.