$ES Weekly Plan - 18th May'26
Buyers have their work cut out. Sellers have an Opening!
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📅ES Weekly Reflective Study
🧭 Market Structure Overview
Daily: 3D Balance (7,402 - 7,537)
Weekly: OTFU (Ends 7,363)
Monthly: OTFU (Ends 6,514)
What Happened Last Week
ES continued to print higher weekly lows for six consecutive weeks and this past week was no different, with yet another higher low at 7,363, a few points above the Weekly Pivot (7,342-52) within prior Thursday’s range. Buyers reclaimed Friday’s High / Upside Pivot / Weekly VAH (7,424-34) after the failed breakdown of Friday’s range, which brought in initiative participants for new highs through Wednesday and Thursday. In the process Thursday converted Wednesday High into Support during IB Period for another nATH on Thursday (7,540) for 2026.
The most notable development occurred on Wednesday, when ES opened on a Value Gap up, backtested Tuesday’s VAH (7,510), a level that coincided with Friday’s VAL as well. The reason the backtest hold of 7,510 was critical, because it was the first “breakdown” session and buyers had to validate Tuesday’s late day recovery. As a result ES continued to grind up overnight and into Thursday.
Structural Outcome & Way Forward
From hereon, the key is to observe whether short term sellers can sustain Friday’s Gap down session (7,480) and initiate a rotation towards 7,363 (Poor Low) to put Weekly in Balance. or will buyers hold onto Weekly VAL 7,392 to keep control of the auction
The below structural developments confirm buyers are currently in control after closing inside last week’s value and defending prior Week’s VAH 7,427. However, Friday’s sustained Gap down and inability to fill the gap despite being in an uptrend, suggests sellers may have an opening, one that must be proven:
Last week ended with Value developing largely above prior week’s upper distribution, keeping buyers firmly in control. However with Thursday’s failed breakout and ES close near Friday’s Low has resulted in Weekly VAL being in a close proximity of being challenged early in the week. A development that was absent over the past 6 weeks with opening week battle typically at prior Week’s VAH.
Friday’s session ended with a Gap down after Thursday’s failed breakout session and that marks the first character change in the sixth week of this ongoing uptrend. It’s noteworthy, Friday’s Gap down was a second such instance this past week after Tuesday’s Value Gap down and the stand out nuance, Friday ended without a Gap fill. Such a shift in character would be validated on sustained acceptance below 7,392 - 7,402, which would also result in a first break of Weekly VAL. The most important structural reference, that will guide how the week ultimately shapes up.
To identify shift in control, we must observe how Weekly Value develops against last week’s value, as the past six weeks has witnessed migrating value higher + higher lows at KEY references. Thus, it is only upon a sustain multi session break below of the ‘Prior Weekly VAL’ (7,284-7,300) and Breakout Session VAH 7,210, do sellers take control of the immediate auction, until then buyers in control on HTF.
The recent breakout rally off prior ATH at 7,031 has left behind 5 unfilled value gaps. Although gaps are a repricing mechanism, 5 definitely confirms the rally is being built on poor structure and remains susceptible to liquidation breaks.
The focus for the week ahead will first be on whether buyers can hold 7,392 - 7,402 defending Weekly VAL + Wednesday Low and form a subsequent reclaim of 7,427/32 to target 7,480 (Gap) and 7,508 (Value Gap). Acceptance above unlocks ES to nATH towards 7,572 and 7,640s. Conversely, sustained acceptance below 7,392 - 7,402, a pullback then initiates towards 7342/52 and 7,286/300 (Gap). Such a move at first will be classified as a structural repair within prior week’s upper distribution.
Deeper pullback initiates through sustained acceptance below 7,286 - 7,300 post Gap fill, which follows through with a weak bounce/lower high. Such a move then targets 7,239-47 (Single Prints/Value Gap) and 7,197-7,208, area’s where we’ll observe for intraday buyer activity with specific focus on magnitude and tempo to gauge validation.
It’s noteworthy any pullback in between 7,239 - 7,300 at first is structural repair, however lack of responsive buyers thereafter will be the first clue of weakness resuming. Any trend continuation or lack of is likely to be characterized by London range migration, value migration, opening drive behaviour, OTF development, or a gap open.
What Else Matters
It is an event light week, except for Nvidia Earnings on Wednesday, which increases the probability that ES will be guided by Friday’s edges early in the week. That said, it remains important to stay aware of geopolitical developments, as they may introduce unexpected volatility around key structural levels. We suggest maintaining prudence and situational awareness before initiating trades.
🗺️Weekly Zones
In the weekly charts below, we have highlighted the anchor balance ranges to monitor, which will help us better understand the weekly auction and rotation. Likewise, the zones, weekly support and resistance levels, and annotations highlight the key areas of interest.
📘 Balance Rules
The extreme ends of a Balance act as support or resistance unless proven otherwise. In the event of a Balance Break, follow the trend and target 50% and then 100% of the range extension, unless there is a Look Above or Below and Fail, in which case the target shifts to the Balance Halfback and then the opposite extreme.
