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📅ES Weekly Reflective Study
🧭 Market Structure Overview
Daily: OTFD (Ends 7,553)
Weekly: 4WK Balance (7,354 - 7,632)
Monthly: OTFU (Ends 7,199)
What Happened Last Week
ES continued higher early in the week and met with Exhaustion turned Supply at 7,627 forming a weak high, indicative of “trapped” late buyers. Buyers failed to find sustained acceleration above last week’s VAH, resulting in failed value breakout and initiated a full value traverse. Thereafter initiative sellers took control below the Weekly VAL and Balance Top 7,522 resulting in a Balance Breakout failure and initiated a full traverse of the prior 2WK Balance, printing new lows for the Week and ending Weekly OTFU.
The most notable development occurred on Friday when ES opened on a value gap down that is for the second time in two sessions - recall Thursday was a true gap down, but sellers failed to capitalize, Friday marked second such attempt and that meant sellers mean business. Sellers then achieved three structural objectives in a single session:
• Acceptance below Weekly VAL
• Re-entry into the prior 2WK Balance (7,354 - 7,522)
• Breakdown from the upper distribution into the lower distribution
The result was a weekly close near Balance Low with a thin and unfinished structure left overhead.
Structural Outcome & Way Forward
From hereon, the key is to observe whether sellers can sustain Friday’s breakdown and continue to establish value within the Lower distribution of the 4WK Balance. If so, the next objective will be to fill the Gap below at 7,286 - 7,300. Balance Rules to guide the week ahead.
Overview: The first test of immediate seller strength will be at Balance Low/Prior Weekly Low 7,354. Lack of follow through to Friday’s liquidation break, and buyers will attempt to repair Friday’s poor structure (Singles + Friday VAL). The response post structural repair will be the first real clue to observe. Do sellers re-emerge again or do buyers successfully reclaim Friday’s Value for a full traverse of Friday’s range and Value Gap at 7,565.
Immediate Term: Sellers are in control for as long as auction builds below Friday’s Value, which coincides with prior week’s VAH (7,448) - an important confluence as initiative buyers off 7,448 led the breakout of prior ATH 7,540. Such a move will mark an interim shift in control with open breakout Gap at 7,286/7,300.
Friday’s Edges: The last 4 Friday’s have been critical in guiding the next intraday move, that brings the immediate focus to Friday’s edges (7,380 - 7,553), as that’s the session where price and value acceptance was found back inside prior 2WK Balance (7,360 - 7,522).
Short Term: The shift in control towards sellers is validated, when upon Gap fill at 7,286 - 7,300, buyers fail to reclaim 7,354 (4WK Balance Low + Friday’s Low) or mark a look above and fail. In that event ES likely back tests 7,186 - 7,210 region, which ends Monthly OTFU. To identify HTF shift in control; multi-week value must start to establish below May’s VAH (7,512).
The immediate focus will be on 7,345 - 7,354, zone that finds confluence with Balance Low + Poor Low at 7,345. A continued hold above, that is validated by a move back inside Friday’s range (7,381) targets 7,412/22 and Friday’s VAL at 7,452 (Value Gap, observe seller strength here). Acceptance above puts ES back inside Friday’s value and prior week’s breakout VAH, targets May/Friday VAH at 7,510 - 7,532 and Friday High/Gap at 7,542/52.
Conversely, a failure of 7,345 - 7,354 post any failed exploration inside Friday’s range, especially the lower distribution, would initiate a balance breakdown toward 7,286 - 7,300 (Gap/Value Gap), where we’ll observe for responsive activity. Acceptance below and the breakout Gap has failed, which would result in rotation back to Single Prints/Value Gap at 7,239 - 7,247 and Prior Balance High + Monthly Low at 7,180 - 7,210, ending Monthly OTFU, area where we’d observe for a defence.
Note: Any trend continuation or lack of is likely to be characterized by London range migration, value migration, opening drive behaviour, OTF development, or a gap open.
What Else Matters
Two important economic releases, CPI on Wednesday and ECB/PPI on Thursday, which increases the probability that ES will be guided by Friday’s edges early in the week. That said, it remains important to stay aware of geopolitical developments, as they may introduce unexpected volatility around key structural levels. We suggest maintaining prudence and situational awareness before initiating trades.
🗺️Weekly Zones
In the weekly charts below, we have highlighted the anchor balance ranges to monitor, which will help us better understand the weekly auction and rotation. Likewise, the zones, weekly support and resistance levels, and annotations highlight the key areas of interest.
📘 Balance Rules
The extreme ends of a Balance act as support or resistance unless proven otherwise. In the event of a Balance Break, follow the trend and target 50% and then 100% of the range extension, unless there is a Look Above or Below and Fail, in which case the target shifts to the Balance Halfback and then the opposite extreme.
